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Wednesday, July 11, 2012

NOAA: U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook Map + Summary

Seasonal Drought Outlook - Climate Prediction Center - NOAA


Latest Seasonal Assessment - Dryness and drought have been increasing both in extent and intensity across much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, the Corn Belt region, the middle and lower Mississippi Valley, and much of the Great Plains. Drought is likely to develop, persist or intensify across these areas. Scattered relief may come in the form of cold front passages or organized thunderstorm clusters (MCSs), but for the most part, summers are usually a fairly dry time of year for the central part of the nation. For the northern tier states, such as North Dakota, Minnesota, and upper Michigan, chances are better for getting frontal passages since these areas reside close to the average position of the polar jet stream during the summer. In the Southeast, drought improvement is expected across coastal portions of Georgia and South Carolina, due to the greater likelihood of a tropical cyclone affecting these areas, and also from sea-breeze driven thunderstorm activity. Across the Southwest, at least some improvement is anticipated across much of Arizona and New Mexico, with the seasonal monsoon starting to ramp up. At this time, it is uncertain as to how widespread or intense this years monsoon is likely to be. Finally, drought persistence is the best bet across the remaining portions of the Western U.S., given that summertime is usually their dry season.
Forecaster: A. Artusa
Next Outlook issued: July 19, 2012 at 8:30 AM EDT


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****REMINDER**** Every fire has the ability to be catastrophic. The wildland fire management environment has profoundly changed. Growing numbers of communities, across the nation, are experiencing longer fire seasons; more frequent, bigger, and more severe, fires are a real threat. Be careful with all campfires and equipment.
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