Northern California Fire Behavior Forecast

Sunday, December 7, 2008

Northern California Fire Behavior Forecast

WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COLDER WEATHER ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEKEND AND OUR FIRST EXPOSURE TO WINTER WEATHER FOR THE SEASON.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT LOW SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY IMPACT TRAVEL FOR NEXT WEEKEND. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

Fire Behavior Forecast Fall and Winter 2008/2009
Current Fire Behavior:
As storms have moved through the North Ops area, the number of fires and acres burned have decreased dramatically. Fire behavior has moderated as well.

Predicted Fire Behavior:
Throughout the fall and winter months, we will still be asked to respond to wildland fires. Fireline intensity will generally be low to moderate. There will always be a chance of a fire exhibiting high to extreme fire behavior for a short period of time over a given area. Pay attention to weather and fuel conditions when you are responding to an incident. Maintain your situational awareness.
This forecast will not be updated until spring of 2009, unless conditions change significantly in Northern California.

Fire Potential Discussion:
Without significant rainfall since early November in much of North Ops, dead fuels are currently averaging drier to much drier than normal for early December, especially mid-slope and higher, i.e. above the diurnal drainage inversions. The recent NE wind pattern has dried out dead fuels in the wind-prone areas of PSAs NC04 and NC05, but the majority of those PSAs still have moist soils, new green grass and decent dead fuel moisture without the dry gusty winds. NC02, NC03 and NC07 have enough dry dead fuel to push them into the lower end of the "Dry" (Yellow) category. No significant change in weather or fuel conditions is expected during the 7-day period. Burners should keep monitoring pile burns closely within your drier/breezy areas until we can shift back to a wetter pattern.

Resources:
Northern California Geographic Area Preparedness Level 1, MACS Mode 1. There is no resource drawdown. Initial attack success is highly probable.

Source: GACC .pdf - Link

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How fires get their names

Every year in California thousands of wildfires start throughout the state. In most cases, the dispatch center sending the initial resources to a wildland fire will designate a name for the fire, but the first on scene engine or fire official can also name the incident. Fires are usually named for the area in which they start – a geographical location, local landmark, street, lake, mountain, peak, etc. Quickly naming the fire provides responding fire resources with an additional locater, and allows fire officials to track and prioritize incidents by name. For example during the Southern California Fire Siege of 2003, the largest wildland fire in California history, the Cedar Fire in San Diego County, was named after the Cedar Creek Falls area where it started. The destructive Old Fire, which burned during the same time period in San Bernardino County, was named after the road along which it started - Old Waterman Canyon Road.

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Sunday, December 7, 2008