USGS: 99% chance of having a magnitude 6.7 or larger

Monday, April 14, 2008

USGS: 99% chance of having a magnitude 6.7 or larger

California has more than a 99% chance of having a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake within the next 30 years.

A strong and potentially deadly earthquake is virtually certain to strike on one of California’s major seismic faults with a magnitude of at least 6.7 within the next 30 years, scientists said Monday.
The likelihood of a major quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 30 years is 46%-and such a quake is most likely to occur in the southern half of the state.

The 99.7 percent probabilities are the result of a new model and database scientists are using.

The official earthquake forecasts, known as the "Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF)," were developed by a multidisciplinary group of scientists and engineers, known as the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities. Building on previous studies, the Working Group updated and developed the first-ever statewide, comprehensive model of California.

The new study determined the probabilities that different parts of California will experience earthquake ruptures of various magnitudes. The new statewide probabilities are the result of a model that comprehensively combines information from seismology, earthquake geology, and geodesy (measuring precise locations on the Earth’s surface). For the first time, probabilities for California having a large earthquake in the next 30 years can be forecast statewide.

A strong and potentially deadly earthquake is virtually certain to strike soon enough, Are you ready enough?

Official USGS Documents:
California statewide probabilities
Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF)
Source: 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (via USGS)
From press release:
Executive Summary (PDF; 760 KB)
Full Report (PDF; 11.2 MB)
Supplemental workbook (xls)

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Monday, April 14, 2008