Friday, December 28, 2007

Heads up! - Sundowner winds - New Years Eve

SUNDOWNER WINDS - FIRE WEATHER WATCH - NEW YEARS EVE AND FOLLOWING DAY
Predictive weather services such as Ontario Weather Service (OWS) and even NOAA are calling for a severe weather event on New Years eve and following day.
Ontario weather service is calling it a Fire Weather Watch and NOAA is predicting what they term a Sundowner Event whatever you want to call it this could be bad.

Heads up! expect Downslope - Offshore winds, sudden high temperatures, sudden humidity drops possibly into the single digits.

These severe weather events usually occur in the late afternoon or early evening with increased strong winds becoming downslope and offshore with sudden warming and a corresponding RH drop.
This weather event is predicted for New Years evening into the next day...

The Santa Barbra area is historically very vulnerable for severe damage during these events and many of the most destructive conflagrations that have occurred in the Santa Barbara region, including the Painted Cave fire of June 1990, which was among the more devastating fires in California history occurred during one of these wind episodes and even without fire damage occurs such as New Years Eve 1995 Sundowner event.(1)

In this event temperatures remained somewhat moderate but wind speeds reached damaging levels. A statement issued by the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Oxnard at 0645 UTC 1 January 1996 (2245 PST 31 December 1995) noted that in the coastal areas of Santa Barbara County “several roads were closed due to debris cluttering the streets” and that “wind speeds of 40 to 45 mph with gusts to near 60 mph were reported in the Santa Barbara area.

National Weather Service - NOAA -Link
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE.. TODAY

HIGH SURF HAS SUBSIDED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING.
MODERATE TO STRONG RIP CURRENTS MAY STILL PERSIST...SO PERSONS
GOING INTO THE OCEAN ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD BE AWARE OF
THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH WATER RELATED ACTIVITIES AND USE EXTREME
CAUTION WHEN ENTERING THE OCEAN. WHEN IN DOUBT...JUST STAY OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN.. SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A REBUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL SATURDAY COULD BRING HIGH SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENT TO THE CENTRAL COAST ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEGINNING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAK TO MODERATE
SUNDOWNER EVENT IS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
MONDAY...AFFECTING PORTION OF LOS ANGELES.. VENTURA...AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
NEW YEARS DAY. A STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA AFTER MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.

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****REMINDER**** Every fire has the ability to be catastrophic. The wildland fire management environment has profoundly changed. Growing numbers of communities, across the nation, are experiencing longer fire seasons; more frequent, bigger, and more severe, fires are a real threat. Be careful with all campfires and equipment.
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